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Economic News: HARP program doubles mortgage refis in 2012

March 14th, 2013

A government program to help struggling homeowners take advantage of low interest rates helped 1.1 million borrowers last year — more than twice as many as in 2011, the government says.

The Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), launched in 2009, was revamped in late 2011 to make it more attractive to homeowners and banks doing the refis.

Given those changes, HARP “is finally living up to expectations,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.

Since 2009, almost 2.2 million homeowners have gotten HARP refis, the government says. On average, they’re saving about $ 4,300 a year on home loans, Fannie Mae estimates.

To be eligible, HARP applicants must have loans owned or guaranteed by Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, have less than 20% equity and be current on payments.

Almost 3 million more borrowers may be eligible for HARP, says Bob Walters, chief economist of Quicken Loans.

He says the biggest problem is that HARP had so many false starts, people don’t pursue it, and they “believe it’s too good to be true.”

HARP was intended to help borrowers refinance even if falling home prices left them with too little home equity to do so, or even left them owing more on loans than their homes were worth.

As HARP changed, more loans became eligible, and lenders got more protection if they refinanced a loan that turned sour.

HARP volume almost doubled in the first quarter of last year after the last changes took hold, according to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the regulator of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

HARP refis — while a small plus for the overall housing market — have been more important for homeowners who couldn’t otherwise refinance and access today’s historically low interest rates, Zandi says.

In December, 25% of HARP refis were to borrowers who owed at least 25% more on their loans than their homes were worth, the FHFA says.

While getting a HARP refi may require less documentation, HARP borrowers pay more, says Amherst Securities. If a conventional borrower last month got a loan at 3.5%, it would have been 3.79% on average for a HARP borrower, Amherst says.

Still, HARP demand has been strong. HARP refis accounted for 22% of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae refis in the fourth quarter, FHFA says. That was up from 10% a year earlier. Freddie and Fannie backed 55% of first mortgages as of late last year.

In states especially hard hit by collapsing home values, HARP has been even more prominent.

Nationwide, HARP has accounted for 15% of Freddie and Fannie refis since 2009, FHFA says. In Nevada, that number is 46%. It’s above 30% in Arizona, Florida and Michigan.

While HARP has helped 2.2 million, millions of other underwater home loans aren’t HARP eligible, Zandi says.

What’s more, 45% of the nation’s first-lien home loans still have interest rates above 5%, says market researcher CoreLogic. Rates have been below 4% for 16 months, Freddie Mac data show.

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Source: http://rssfeeds.usatoday.com/~r/UsatodaycomMoney-TopStories/~3/5aKwF6Q7K1o/

Category: Economy, Money

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Larry Summers Says the Clinton Administration Didn’t Have Access to Government Economic Data

Okay, that is not exactly what he said, but if Chrystia Freeland’s account of Summers’ comments at Davos is to be believed Summers is badly misinformed about the state of the U.S. economy in 1993, when he was one of the top advisers in the Clinton administration. According to Freeland Summers said:

In 1993, here’s what the situation was: Capital costs were really high, the trade deficit was really big, and if you looked at a graph of average wages and the productivity of American workers, those two graphs lay on top of each other. So, bringing down the deficit, reducing capital costs, raising investment, spurring productivity growth, was the right and natural central strategy for spurring growth. That was what Bob Rubin advised Bill Clinton, that was the advice Bill Clinton followed, and they were right.

This is not what the data say. Here’s the story on real wages and productivity.

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

There are some measurement issues that would reduce the gap somewhat, but anyone who could see these two as laying “on top of each other” needs some new glasses. The sharp divergence between productivity and wages began in the 1980s. It would be really scary if Larry Summers, Robert Rubin and the rest did not know this in 1993.

The other parts of Summers’ story are also wrong. The trade deficit was less than 1.0 percent of GDP in 1993. By comparison it was almost 4.0 percent of GDP when Clinton left office in 2000. The interest rate on ten-year Treasury bonds was 6.6 percent in January of 1993. Coupled with an inflation rate of around 3.0-3.5 percent, this gave a real interest rate in the neighborhood of 3.1-3.6 percent. This is perhaps a bit higher than desirable, but actually not much different than what we saw through most of the Clinton years.

In short, Summers is describing a history that does not exist. He either has a very poor memory or is just making things up.

Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economy and Policy Research. He also writes a regular blog, Beat the Press, where this post originally appeared.

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Author: Dean Baker
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About Tica Vinton

I am proud of America. I love America and I love freedom. I want everyone to have equal opportunity to pursue happiness and live the American Dream. Now that President Obama has been re-elected, we are all in this together and we must fight to preserve our Constitutional Rights. I hope that Obama changes his policies because we can't afford another four years of economic disaster.
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